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20121002
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if it was president obama gets re-elected, then at the high end you'll see the bush tax cuts not extended for the high end. and then -- but if romney wins it, you would see them all extended. is there one that would have a better outcome in your view? >> you know, i think there's a -- there's a tension between two different things here. on the one hand, there's a sense that in the very near term with a weak overall economic performance continuing that raising levels of taxes wherever in the distribution may have some negative effects on economic growth. and then there's a harder long-term question, frankly, which is how tax rates on capital gains, on dividends which feed through a somewhat complicated channel by encouraging various kinds of saving activity and ultimately lowering the cost of capital to businesses and encouraging investment, how that translates into long-term economic growth. that is frankly a difficult chain to try to measure in any precise way, and consequently it's harder to be able to trace through the quantitative impacts on growth to follow through on channels for that. >> to fol
and it will limit the upside for next year. >> is there a point at which you see obama in the polls and you say actually now i believe that we are going to get the tax hikes and the market should fall? there must be a watershed quite soon as we head towards particularly what happens in the house and the senate. >> our focus has been on the senate. we think that's what's going to mostly influence the outcome. i hope there's appetite to see the rates low. i don't see a benefit from raising them. i would call a coin toss on the senate outcome. but wiser minds will see the wisdom of helping the fed in its efforts to stimulate asset prices by not onerously raising taxes on the most important asset class other than homes. >> have you actually calculated a number? you said it would give back some of the rally. but is there a number or a percentage? >> 12-month price target is 1,500. we've written in our research that 1,600 would be a reasonable 2013 end. i need to see an acceleration in global growth. >> contingent on both, not just the tax issue? >> both. somewhere between 1,500 and 1,600. >> david,
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